The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) marked its second back-to-back monthly decrease by 1.6% this October, with sugar the most deflationary.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on November 7, 2025, the FFPI touched 126.4 points, 2.1 points below September’s final.
All categories weakened excepting vegetable oil which increased by 1.5 points or 0.9% month-on-month, to 169.4 points.
This was the steepest climb by vegetable oil since July 2022, owing to rising quotations for mainly palm, canola, soya and sunflower oils.
A move by Indonesia to raise its biodiesel blending caps in 2026 tightened palm export capacity, countered Malaysia’s rising production and undercut prices.
Category falls included that of the meat price index, which had a median 125 points, 2% below September’s.
This was a surprise decrease following 8 months of consecutive rises, this time due to lowering pork and world’s poultry rates.
Cereals shed 1.3% monthly or 9.5% year-on-year, to 103.6 points due to autumn harvests which undercut coarse grain pricing.
The FAO separately expects 2025’s cereal output globally to reach a high of 2.99 billion tonnes, according to Reuters.
The dairy index on the other hand reduced monthly by 5 points or 3.4%, to 142.2 points, its fourth consecutive decline since August.
Although the dairy index annually rated 2.7% above its October 2024 mark, monthly it underperformed due to bearish butter and skim milk powder. This was due to export volume hikes in key milk sources like New Zealand and the European Union.
The sugar index which had dipped in September meanwhile scored the sharpest monthly downturn among food groups by 5.3%, to 94.1 points.
October 2025 marked the lowest point for the sweetener’s index since December 2020. Annually, the commodity rated 27.4% below the October 2024 equivalent.
Gaining harvests in Brazil’s southern sugar belt and forecasts of sugar glut in Thailand and India contributed to the losses.
The final FFPI for 2025 will be on December 5, culminating a year when trade war affected food prices. To put this into perspective, the below stats parade the January-October 2025 index versus trade war effects.
Statistics on 2025’s FFPI in the Trade War Context
Between the January and October FAO Price Index (FFPI) releases, trade war tariffs impacted prices especially in countries trading with the United States. According to an IP Royal chart, retaliatory tariffs had a 4.6% price increment effect worldwide above non-reciprocal tariff periods. In contrast, before the March 2025 trade war, prices used to change by less than 1% and sometimes by -0.5%. Owing to reciprocal tariff adversity, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) down-revised its 2025 global economic growth projection from 3.3% to 3%.
Although other factors like production and market prices affect food prices, reciprocal tariffs have immediate effect. As such, below is an attempt to match the FPPI to trade war changes through 2025.
The FAO’s Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) tool recorded the FFPI as follows during the non-reciprocal tariff period (January-February):
January: 124.7 points.
February: 126.6 points.
And after the March 2025 reciprocal tariffs, the food price index increased as follows:
March: 127.2 points
April: 128.2 points.
Following the postponement of U.S.’ additional tariffs universally from May to August, the index reduced briefly and then climbed, per the FPPI :
| Month | FFPI |
| May | 127.1 points |
| June | 128.1 points |
| July | 129.8 points |
| August | 129.8 points |
| September | 128.5 points |
| October | 126.4 points |